The South added 3,002,903 net domestic migrants between July 2020 and July 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 state estimates. No other region comes close: over the same five years the West lost 1,153,577 residents to other states and the Northeast lost 1,374,019. The Sun Belt migration boom is real, it is large, and it is still going. What changed in 2025 is its shape. The flood into Florida and Texas has slowed sharply, while the Carolinas, Tennessee, Alabama and Arizona have picked up a bigger share of the flow. This report walks through the latest Census, moving-industry and housing-market data to show where Sun Belt movers are actually landing in 2026.
Quick answer: The Sun Belt is still the country’s biggest migration magnet, but the boom is cooling and spreading out. North Carolina led all states with 84,064 net domestic migrants in the year to July 2025, ahead of Texas and South Carolina. Florida’s net gain fell to 22,517, down from 310,892 in 2022.
How Big Is the Sun Belt Migration Boom?
There is no official Census definition of the “Sun Belt.” In this report we use the Census Bureau’s South region plus Arizona and Nevada, the two fast-growing desert states usually included in the term. All migration figures below are net domestic migration: people moving in from other U.S. states minus people moving out to other states. International migration is counted separately.
By that measure, the South’s net domestic gain peaked at 836,925 people in the year ending July 2022 and has fallen every year since, to 357,790 in the year ending July 2025. That is a 57% drop from the peak, calculated from the Census Bureau’s State Population Totals and Components of Change, 2020-2025. Even so, the South still posted the largest net domestic gain of any region in 2025 and grew faster than any other region, at 0.9%, according to the Census Bureau’s January 2026 release on national and state population estimates.
The Sun Belt’s pull shows up in raw population growth, too. Texas added 391,243 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, more than any other state, and Florida added 196,680. South Carolina was the fastest-growing state in percentage terms at 1.5%, followed by Idaho (1.4%), North Carolina (1.3%) and Texas (1.2%), per the same Census Bureau release.
The Sun Belt States Gaining the Most Movers
The table below lists the Sun Belt states with the largest net domestic migration in the year ending July 2025, alongside their 2022 figures (the peak year for the region) and their cumulative five-year total. All numbers come from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 components-of-change dataset.
| State | Net Domestic Migration, Year to July 2022 | Net Domestic Migration, Year to July 2025 | Cumulative, July 2020 to July 2025 |
| North Carolina | +98,454 | +84,064 | +468,133 |
| Texas | +218,840 | +67,299 | +760,233 |
| South Carolina | +83,341 | +66,622 | +364,272 |
| Tennessee | +82,316 | +42,389 | +277,999 |
| Arizona | +68,315 | +31,107 | +252,762 |
| Georgia | +79,102 | +27,333 | +221,265 |
| Alabama | +27,718 | +23,358 | +131,598 |
| Florida | +310,892 | +22,517 | +828,686 |
| Nevada | +20,116 | +14,914 | +85,718 |
| Oklahoma | +25,770 | +14,492 | +103,396 |
| Arkansas | +18,583 | +14,475 | +81,020 |
Three patterns stand out. First, the Carolinas have become the center of gravity. North Carolina and South Carolina together netted 150,686 domestic movers in 2025, more than Texas and Florida combined (89,816). Second, Florida and Texas still lead on the five-year total, which reflects just how large the 2021 and 2022 waves were. Third, every state on the list gained fewer movers in 2025 than in 2022. The boom is broad, but it is past its peak almost everywhere.
Florida’s Sharp Slowdown
Florida is the clearest example of a cooling Sun Belt market. The Census Bureau notes that Florida’s net domestic migration was 22,517 in 2025, down sharply from 183,646 in 2023 and 310,892 in 2022, dropping it to eighth place nationally. Neighboring Alabama, with 23,358 net domestic migrants, actually gained more people from other states than Florida did over the same period.
Moving-industry data points in the same direction. United Van Lines’ 2025 National Movers Study, which tracks household moves handled by its network across the 48 contiguous states, classified both Florida and Texas as “balanced” in 2025, meaning inbound and outbound moves were roughly equal. The study attributes the shift partly to rising housing costs that “are beginning to constrain even traditionally attractive regions.”
The U-Haul 2025 Growth Index tells a similar story from the DIY side of the market. Florida ranked second among growth states, but arrivals made up just 50.6% of all one-way U-Haul traffic in and out of the state, against 49.4% departures. Texas ranked first with arrivals at 50.7%. In other words, the two biggest Sun Belt magnets are still net gainers, but only barely.
Inside Florida, the losses are concentrated in its most expensive metro. Census metro estimates show the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area lost 113,724 residents to domestic out-migration in the year ending July 2025, up from a loss of 47,214 in 2021, according to the Census Bureau’s metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area totals. International arrivals (93,450) offset most of that, but the domestic trend is clearly negative.
The Sun Belt Metros Drawing the Most Domestic Movers
At the metro level, the strongest domestic inflows in 2025 went to the Carolinas, Arizona and central Texas. The table below lists metros with more than 1 million residents ranked by net domestic migration for the year ending July 2025, using the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 metro-area dataset.
| Metro Area | Net Domestic Migration, 2025 | Total Population Change, 2025 | Population, July 2025 |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | +24,404 | +54,122 | 2,938,830 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | +22,256 | +59,065 | 5,228,938 |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | +19,974 | +36,793 | 1,595,720 |
| Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | +19,860 | +53,796 | 2,620,945 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | +18,763 | +38,402 | 2,813,140 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | +18,197 | +123,557 | 8,477,157 |
| Jacksonville, FL | +17,360 | +26,153 | 1,785,500 |
| Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN | +16,967 | +34,658 | 2,197,416 |
| Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC | +11,375 | +14,474 | 1,014,101 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV | +8,465 | +21,480 | 2,407,226 |
Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth added the most people of any U.S. metros in 2025 (126,720 and 123,557, per the Census Bureau’s county and metro estimates release), but most of that growth came from births and international migration rather than movers from other states. Houston netted only 7,308 domestic migrants, compared with 71,903 international arrivals.
Growth is also shifting to the edges of these metros. The same release names Jasper County, South Carolina, as the nation’s fastest-growing county at 6.0%, followed by Waller County and Kaufman County in Texas at 5.7% each. A separate Census Bureau analysis of county domestic migration trends found that counties on the outer edges of Dallas and Atlanta, and most recently Jasper County, South Carolina, have posted the nation’s highest domestic migration rates every year since 2021, and noted that Jasper County has attracted older, retirement-age movers since the 2010s.
Where Sun Belt Movers Are Coming From
The flip side of the Sun Belt boom is a steady outflow from high-cost states. In the year ending July 2025, California lost 229,077 residents to other states and New York lost 137,586. Over the five years since July 2020, those two states alone lost a combined 2,675,237 people to domestic migration, according to the Census Bureau’s components-of-change tables. Illinois (-40,017), New Jersey (-37,428) and Massachusetts (-33,340) posted the next-largest net losses in 2025.
Moving-company data lines up with the Census numbers. United Van Lines’ 2025 study ranked New Jersey (62% outbound), New York (58%) and California (58%) as the top outbound states, while South Carolina (61% inbound) placed third among inbound states. U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index put California last for the sixth straight year, with Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey and Illinois rounding out the bottom five, and noted that eight of its top 10 growth states are in the South.
Would-be homebuyers show the same direction of travel. Redfin’s Q1 2026 migration analysis found that 19.1% of its users were searching for homes in a different metro, the highest share in its records dating back to 2021. The top net destinations were Orlando, North Port, Miami and Cape Coral in Florida, followed by Las Vegas, Tampa and Phoenix. The top metros users were looking to leave were New York, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Jose and Washington, D.C. Keep in mind that this data measures search intent, not completed moves.
Why the Boom Is Cooling in 2026
Three forces explain why Sun Belt migration is slowing even as it stays strong.
1. Home prices caught up
The Sun Belt’s price advantage has narrowed after years of rapid appreciation, though it has not disappeared. In August 2026, the median existing-home price in the South was $366,500, compared with $556,900 in the Northeast and $619,100 in the West, according to the National Association of Realtors’ August 2026 existing-home sales report. The Midwest, at $340,400, is now cheaper than the South, which helps explain why some movers are looking north instead.
2. Some Sun Belt markets are now buyer’s markets
Supply has jumped in several Sun Belt metros. Redfin’s August 2026 housing market report found median sale prices falling year over year in Austin (-6.3%) and Fort Worth (-2.6%), and described Texas and South Florida metros as showing pronounced buyer advantages. For movers, falling prices are good news, but they also signal that demand from out-of-state buyers has cooled from the 2021-2022 frenzy.
3. Fewer people are moving at all
Only 2.1% of Americans moved from a different state in 2024, down from 2.3% in 2023, according to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey mobility estimates. With mortgage rates near 7% (the 30-year fixed averaged 7.03% on September 24, 2026, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey), many homeowners who might have relocated are staying put. A smaller pool of movers means smaller net gains, even for popular destinations.
What the Sun Belt Data Means If You’re Planning a Move
If you are moving to the Sun Belt in 2026, the data suggests a few practical takeaways.
- Look beyond Florida and Texas. The fastest domestic inflows are now in the Carolinas, Tennessee, Alabama and Arizona. Charlotte, Raleigh, Greenville, Nashville and Phoenix all drew more net domestic movers in 2025 than Houston.
- Expect more negotiating room in some markets. Rising inventory and falling prices in parts of Texas and South Florida mean buyers relocating there may have more leverage than they would have had in 2022.
- Book long-distance moves early in peak lanes. Routes from the Northeast, California and Illinois into the Carolinas, Texas, Florida and Arizona match the largest state-to-state outflows and inflows in the Census data above. Summer dates on popular long-distance lanes can fill quickly.
- Check county-level data, not just the state. Growth is concentrated in outer suburbs and exurbs. A state that is gaining movers overall can still have core counties that are losing residents, as Miami-Dade shows: it lost 10,115 residents overall in the year to July 2025, per the Census Bureau’s county population estimates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Sun Belt state gained the most movers in 2025?
North Carolina, with 84,064 net domestic migrants in the year ending July 2025, according to Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates. Texas (67,299) and South Carolina (66,622) followed. Over the full five years since 2020, Florida (828,686) and Texas (760,233) still lead.
Is the Sun Belt migration boom over?
No, but it is slowing. The South’s net domestic gain fell from 836,925 in 2022 to 357,790 in 2025. That is still by far the largest regional gain in the country, while the Northeast and West continue to lose residents to other states.
Why did Florida’s migration numbers drop so much?
Florida’s net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025. Industry studies from United Van Lines point to rising housing costs, and Census metro data shows large domestic outflows from the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area in particular.
Which Sun Belt cities are attracting the most people?
By net domestic migration among large metros in 2025, Charlotte led with 24,404, followed by Phoenix, Raleigh, Austin and San Antonio. By total population growth, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth led the nation, but mostly because of births and international arrivals.
Where are most Sun Belt movers coming from?
Mostly from high-cost states. California and New York posted the largest net domestic losses in 2025, followed by Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Moving-industry data from United Van Lines and U-Haul ranks the same states among the top outbound origins.
Is it still cheaper to buy a home in the Sun Belt?
Generally yes, compared with the coasts. The South’s median existing-home price was $366,500 in August 2026, versus $556,900 in the Northeast and $619,100 in the West, according to NAR. The Midwest ($340,400) is now slightly cheaper than the South.
Next Step: Plan Your Sun Belt Move With a Written Estimate
The Sun Belt is still where most interstate movers are heading, and the busiest lanes into the Carolinas, Texas, Florida and Arizona fill up fastest in late spring and summer. Before you commit to dates, get at least three written estimates based on an in-home or video survey of your belongings, and ask for a binding or binding-not-to-exceed quote so the final price can’t climb on delivery day. If you’d like a quote for a long-distance move into the Sun Belt, Interstate Moving and Relocation Group can provide a written estimate based on your actual inventory and route.
No Comments